south point casino college football lines

This one is relatively easy, because there is a ton of connectivity: Since Vegas sees Clemson as a point worse than Alabama, a reasonable guess at the line using this transitive logic would be Clemson -13 in College Station. Against A&M, Alabama would be expected to be a 14-point road favorite. Vegas sees Alabama as a 21-point favorite over A&M in Tuscaloosa, or an 17.5-point favorite on a neutral site. And it sees Alabama as 3.5-points better than either at a neutral site, or 1 point better than Clemson. Vegas sees Auburn and Georgia as roughly equals at a neutral site. Thus, it thinks Clemson is 2-ish points better than Georgia on a neutral field. It thinks Georgia is 14 points better than South Carolina on a neutral field. This is transitive property a few times removed.īased on the released lines, Vegas thinks Clemson is 16 points better than South Carolina on a neutral field. There are no common opponents between Clemson and Texas A&M, but there are common opponents between their opponents.

We can use the same approach even when it’s not that straightforward. Because the game is in Blacksburg, the Irish will likely be around 6-point favorites, accounting for 3 points of home-field advantage. If FSU is 3 points better than Virginia Tech on a neutral field, and Notre Dame is 6 points better than FSU on a neutral field, it implies that Notre Dame would be a 9-point favorite over Virginia Tech at a neutral site. Florida State at Notre Dame -9 (Notre Dame is 6 points better on a neutral field.).Virginia Tech at Florida State -6 (Florida State is 3 points better on a neutral field.).We know two helpful related data points involving these teams: Here are some 2018 examples: An easy example is in Week 6: Notre Dame at Virginia Tech It involves the simple use of the transitive property, along with the knowledge that home-field advantage in college football is worth anywhere from 3-4 points on a spread. But fret not: There is a quick-and-dirty method to guesstimating what the lines will be when they come out, using Vegas’ own numbers.

Still, we don’t have odds for plenty of games. Those go on top of a lot of Week 1 odds already out. The South Point Casino in Las Vegas released odds Thursday for more than 50 big college football games in the 2018 season.

South point casino college football lines